Thursday, October 29, 2009
If you read my earlier piece today on positive GDP growth and you regularly follow this blog, you may have found my post a little optimistic in comparison to my normal economic outlooks. I’m now writing to allay your fears. Thanks to our good friends at MSNBC, I’m more pessimistic then ever.
They quoted a Goldman-Sachs analyst:
“The risk of renewed home price declines remains significant,” he wrote in a research note last week. "And our working assumption is a further 5-10 percent decline by mid-2010.”
Now I expected and have predicted a double dip for a while, but 5 -10 percent by mid-2010? That’s quite a contraction that they are predicting in three quarters. Especially since the last two quarters has held around a 1% decline.