Friday, June 26, 2009
Even as I write this, congress is voting on the Waxman-Markey tax and unemployment bill. In true leftist style, the bill is being crammed through congress without debate or consideration of opposing view-points. Also true to form, Henry Waxman inserted a 300 page amendment to his already 1,000 page bill last night so that no one really has a clue about what they are voting on.
My friends on the left, what does this say about the integrity of your politicians?
Today, there will be no discussion about the validity of man-made global warming on the congressional floor, lucky for you dear reader, I have no such fear of holding a debate here.
You will notice that this is my second of three posts regarding global warming. In my last post, I discussed how mathematical modeling works and the limitations of using modeling to establish scientific relationships and make predictions. My first point was that mathematical modeling cannot, in and of itself, prove a cause and effect relationship. I illustrated this point by showing a real model I’d created "proving" that voting for Barak Obama causes unemployment. My second point was that mathematical models are only useful for making predictions in the short-term. Global warming models going out 100 years are wrong.
Today I’m going to discuss how solar activity and not carbon dioxide is destined to win the debate regarding what causes fluctuations in global temperatures. I regret that there is no way to write this post without being somewhat tongue in cheek. I am sorry to those who don’t see the humor in some of this. It is merely the symptom of the willing suspension of common sense.
As I’ve often mentioned, it is difficult to parse through a “science” that is so highly politicized. However, there is a growing body of evidence that suggests that solar activity is the main cause of global temperatures. As I understand it, the sun generally goes through 11 year cycles of increasing to decreasing solar activity, which effect global temperatures. I have seen a few models online and most of the models have an R-square of 60% or higher (about the same as the carbon dioxide folks). Here is an article from a Harvard scientist here.
So what C Gen? Our man made global warming models show just as strong of a relationship! However, solar activity models will prevail because it only takes a little common sense to prove a strong cause-effect relationship. If the sun were to extinguish tomorrow, what would the temperature of the earth be? How much heat will carbon dioxide and man generate once the sun is out of the equation?
The very term man-made global warming is a joke since man does not create any heat in the model. The cause and effect chain for man-made global warming goes like this: man makes carbon dioxide, that carbon dioxide traps heat causing a .2 degree Celsius increase in temperatures over the last 50 years, which is causing water to evaporate more than usual adding another .4 degree Celsius increase over the last 50 years. The model cannot account for the fact that carbon dioxide is always increasing, but temperatures are not always increasing. However, the bigger hole is that the sun is nowhere in their equation and yet it is essential for global warming to exist. Doesn’t it sound a little presumptuous to hold solar activity constant when that is the only source for heat in your model?
It is even more concerning when it is well known that the sun has been responsible for dramatic changes in the earth’s temperature in the past. Many astrophysicists point to the little ice age, a long period where global temperatures were unusually cold and sun spot activity was nonexistent. So far, this June is likely to be one of the coldest June’s since the beginning of temperature records. Could it be a coincidence that there was no sun spot activity at the beginning of 2009?
If you need more proof of the sun’s ability to heat a planet, here is an article from that ultra conservative (laying on the sarcasm thick) Nation Geographic about how Mars has also seen global increases in temperature.
If facts weren’t bad enough, top global warming climatologists have made seriously poor defenses of their climate models as it relates to solar activity. Global warming scientist Mike Lockwood had this to say in a National Geographic article about the sun’s ability to affect global temperatures:
"I think you have to bear in mind that the CO2 is a good 50 to 60 percent higher than normal, whereas the decline in solar output is a few hundredths of one percent down," Lockwood said. "I think that helps keep it in perspective."
No Mike, it doesn’t help keep things in perspective since you are comparing apples to oranges. It’s like saying this, “the new F-somenumber is not faster than the new GM Greenster because the new jet has increased its top speed over the F-22 by only 1% and the Greenster beat out the top speed of a Prius by 40%." The sun is thousands of times bigger than the earth and a small change is significant. On the other hand, CO2 is .001% of the earth’s atmosphere. It requires very, very large changes to affect anything, if at all.
Hanson’s NASA finally admitted that the sun is having an effect on global temperatures. This would be a small sign of sanity in the organization had they not gone on to say that solar activity was responsible for 25% of global temperatures. Once again, I ask NASA to explain what the temperature of the earth would be if the sun were extinguished? We know that the sun is responsible for ice ages and temperatures far hotter than we are seeing now in the past? Even if NASA’s estimate is correct, it poses a big problem for carbon dioxide. If carbon dioxide is responsible for causing water vapor to be 66% of temperature increase, why can’t solar and not carbon dioxide be responsible for water vapor’s role?
If global warming scientists were to stay true to the scientific method, they would take their models and science back to square one. Sun-caused global warming has no such cause and effect problems. We know for certain that man has no effect on the sun. The earth also has minimal effect on the sun. The sun is necessary for any global warming to occur. In short, we are sure that the sun heats the planet.
Some light global warming reading:
Here is a post on global warming modeling
Here is a post on the insanity of the left’s tax and unemployment policy
Here is a great article about how tax and unemployment policies are killing Spain