tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post6525942126190599645..comments2023-05-19T10:54:08.696-04:00Comments on New Conservative Generation: CO2 vs Solar Activity: A Summaryconservative generationhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10614578478747561732noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-53538804316278185602009-08-16T00:46:58.245-04:002009-08-16T00:46:58.245-04:00As as an amateur in climate I believe that you hav...As as an amateur in climate I believe that you have both your act and facts together. I hold a National Certification in Emergency Management from the Rochester Institute of Technology and took coursed both Earth Science and Meteorology. While not as educated in this field as you are, I would definitely put you into the category of being an expert in this subject area along and as such have a Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07439272245238861525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-60670498043648120762009-06-30T16:03:03.252-04:002009-06-30T16:03:03.252-04:00A C-Gen, A lib named "Nameless Cynic" tr...A C-Gen, A lib named "Nameless Cynic" tried to push me around intellectually on the climate subject. I posted the highlights of it on my blog. Check it out for a good laugh.Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-85492592345982968402009-06-30T01:27:08.151-04:002009-06-30T01:27:08.151-04:00Economically, Florida is doing O.K. because Jeb Bu...Economically, Florida is doing O.K. because Jeb Bush was not a big spender. When times were good we saved more than the other states mentioned and we have no income tax, and have had no tax increases despite all the hurricanes. The only problem that hit us was housing speculation but that is over with. <br /><br />Here in Florida, we don't get haze. Ocean breezes and continual summer rain Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-64409665721564529362009-06-30T01:20:55.524-04:002009-06-30T01:20:55.524-04:00LCR please encourage others from your blog to chec...LCR please encourage others from your blog to check this out. C-Gen and I worked very hard on this. <br /><br />I experienced my first hurricane 20years ago and have studied meteorology and climatology ever since. I spend far more time on this than politics and getting the opportunity to combine my favorite interests and work with someone who is as smart as C-Gen was for me the equivalent of a Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-47499924565561994902009-06-30T00:54:19.972-04:002009-06-30T00:54:19.972-04:00Andrew and Conservative Gen - Great piece, great d...Andrew and Conservative Gen - Great piece, great debate. I really have nothing to add as you two combined are an amazing source. Obviously you guys have a keen analytical background in the sciences, mine is more literary. As such, I am not an expert on such topics but I am surely aware of the fallacious arguments being made by the junk-science, global warming alarmists. As Andrew, KOOK, and Sean Left Coast Rebelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09292257205859285528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-37081919921459666582009-06-30T00:51:18.417-04:002009-06-30T00:51:18.417-04:00I think we're starting to get somewhere in thi...I think we're starting to get somewhere in this debate. I blame the left for focusing the energy issue on global warming. It is such a stupid idea to fight such a controversial issue. I acknowledge that natural phenomenon contributes to global warming, and I'll even go ahead and say it has a far larger impact than man-made factors. Still, we continually deny our own carbon footprint The Lawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18232167775850895479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-2582503857587040252009-06-29T20:46:57.731-04:002009-06-29T20:46:57.731-04:00If you have anymore questions ask me here or at KO...If you have anymore questions ask me here or at KOOK's blog.Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-89176420984971553242009-06-29T20:45:36.405-04:002009-06-29T20:45:36.405-04:00As I said, I have MOUNTAINS of info on this subjec...As I said, I have MOUNTAINS of info on this subject. I have been studying this since I experienced my first hurricane. That is why my initial model explanation actually came from hurricane tracking info. I hope this was what you wanted.Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-54669655706673351452009-06-29T20:42:45.297-04:002009-06-29T20:42:45.297-04:00Now after seeing how undefined the GFS becomes aft...Now after seeing how undefined the GFS becomes after 2 weeks, would you trust it for a 50 year forecast? Whole the GFS in itself is not the sole model that climatologists use rather the models they use are an ensemble of all the above mentioned models and others. The point here was to show in a visual way that these models aren't accurate 2 weeks out so how can we trust them 50 years out????<Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-38454900580068244202009-06-29T20:35:06.220-04:002009-06-29T20:35:06.220-04:00Here is a link to the GFS (Global Forecasting Sys...Here is a link to the GFS (Global Forecasting System) model. You can watch it in animation over a 2 week span. Watch what happens to the accuracy of the forecast after a week. The colors indicate increased chances of "vorticity" which is commonly called clouds and possible rainfall....http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml<br /><br />Note Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-35575887992840227212009-06-29T20:26:04.229-04:002009-06-29T20:26:04.229-04:00"One of the largest uncertainties in climate ..."One of the largest uncertainties in climate simulations is from the representation of land processes, because there are few observations to calibrate or constrain it. Different land surface schemes (LSSs) use quite different parameterizations to describe the complex hydrological, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical processes. Even when forced by the same atmospheric forcing and provided the Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-51018287415243761972009-06-29T20:21:43.088-04:002009-06-29T20:21:43.088-04:00From NOAA I got this:Computer forecast models are ...From NOAA I got this:Computer forecast models are an integral part of the forecast process for operational Meteorologists. The majority of forecast models are run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Silver Spring, MD. The forecast models provide us of a simulation of an atmosphere, projecting it into the future. Thousands upon thousands of observed surface data, observed upperAndrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-17770666366955648022009-06-29T20:10:02.461-04:002009-06-29T20:10:02.461-04:00The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by phys...The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations. These equations represent how atmospheric quantities such as temperature, wind speed and direction, humidity, etc., will change from their initial current values (at the present time). If we can solve these equations, we will have a forecast. We can do this by sub-dividing the atmosphere Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-43629563266440779532009-06-29T20:00:49.749-04:002009-06-29T20:00:49.749-04:00This will definitely take 2 comments. In layman...This will definitely take 2 comments. In layman's terms, models are supercomputer based forecasts that look at past events worldwide and predict future events based on past events. These models are only as good as the info put into them. Here are explanations given by expert weather forecasters and climatologists" I am using the definitions given by the hurricane experts as they give theAndrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-35693635350330581562009-06-29T19:38:23.539-04:002009-06-29T19:38:23.539-04:00Andrew,
You truly are a wealth of information! J...Andrew,<br /><br />You truly are a wealth of information! Just FYI, I've gotten record page hits on this post and the last. Thanks for contributing.<br /><br />I did have a question for you. What's the methodology behind GFS NAM and ECMWRF? I was under the impression that most climatologists were using simple regression modeling. Are they similar?conservative generationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10614578478747561732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-38183680207231098102009-06-29T15:19:14.221-04:002009-06-29T15:19:14.221-04:00I believe that the factors leading to the cooling ...I believe that the factors leading to the cooling were not legislated by the English Parliament, Kings or Popes, but were the following. During the warm period preceding the "little ice age", polar ice caps melted just as they are now probably because of increased solar activity. Then the solar cycle shifted just as fresh water from melting ice caps blocked the oceanic conveyor (known Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-2648596567877967192009-06-29T15:09:18.019-04:002009-06-29T15:09:18.019-04:00The Law, have you ever studied European History, e...The Law, have you ever studied European History, especially the end of the Roman Empire, and the beginning of the middle ages? Right at the beginning of the "middle ages" we experienced a similar warming cycle as the one today. After about 100 years or so during which temps rose up to 2-5C, the climatological bottom fell out. This led to a cooling pattern known as the "little ice Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-67980216850228927502009-06-29T10:59:34.599-04:002009-06-29T10:59:34.599-04:00C-Gen, we are getting a good number of comments on...C-Gen, we are getting a good number of comments on our blog on this. Good Job!!!!!Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-34463433542834585352009-06-29T09:04:49.494-04:002009-06-29T09:04:49.494-04:00To turn this planet into Venus, we would have to u...To turn this planet into Venus, we would have to use every person on earth along with every changing all planetary industrial output to dedicated creation of CO2 while scrubbing the atmosphere of oxygen and water vapor along with all the trace gasses are lighter than CO2. Basically it would be man's first "terraforming" project. <br /><br />All in favor of doing so say I...AlGore Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-78540841746573524482009-06-29T08:53:10.778-04:002009-06-29T08:53:10.778-04:00We already have a planet with runaway greenhouse g...We already have a planet with runaway greenhouse global arming to study. It is called Venus. There is a MASSIVE discrepancy in the density of the atmosphere because of the huge amount of CO2. The density of our atmosphere which is measured as "barometric pressure" since before the 19th century has not changed one bit. If CO2 were increasing, so would barometric pressure. <br /><br />NowAndrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-1167850557764814612009-06-29T08:23:59.001-04:002009-06-29T08:23:59.001-04:00First of all, I'm not arguing about whether gl...First of all, I'm not arguing about whether global warming exist. I'm arguing that the sun and not CO2 is the main cause. I am arguing that the earth's temperature fluctuates naturally. We are actually beginning to see global cooling at the moment.<br /><br />Out of all the gasses CO2 is not harmful to man. It's plant food and it's natural. If you were talking mercury conservative generationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10614578478747561732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-30948969409221684702009-06-29T02:05:05.945-04:002009-06-29T02:05:05.945-04:00So we just ignore other signs of global warming, s...So we just ignore other signs of global warming, such as melting ice caps, changes in migratory patterns of birds, fish, and other species? Phenomenon that occurs what, every 10,000 years or so? So we just happen to be lucky enough to witness astronomical history? <br /><br />Is it such a strange thought that manmade gasses may be more than the earth can filter out? Does it not make sense The Lawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18232167775850895479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-78670657329882054642009-06-28T20:26:18.911-04:002009-06-28T20:26:18.911-04:00I will repost this on the "Manifesto" to...I will repost this on the "Manifesto" too...Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-28434389787313883832009-06-28T20:23:32.504-04:002009-06-28T20:23:32.504-04:00Here's one more dirty little secret for you. T...Here's one more dirty little secret for you. The folks hyping "Global warming by using these "models" don't give you all the facts. These are the same models such as the GFS NAM and ECMWRF that are used to predict local short term weather. Sure they give the models different names, but they are the same ones just given different names. They are not 100% 24 hours out and Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8571885563565623577.post-319033880569457732009-06-28T20:18:57.534-04:002009-06-28T20:18:57.534-04:00I hope these are the comments you were hoping for ...I hope these are the comments you were hoping for when you asked for them on my blog. I would love to hear your comments from one amateur climatologist to another.Andrew33https://www.blogger.com/profile/12727106195950368976noreply@blogger.com